Trading By Ear

III. Returns and Rhythms

 

Accounting for the rhythms in finance, is akin to accounting for rhythms in music and physics.

There are two notably different kinds of rhythm: spectral rhythms and metrical rhythms.

  • In psychoacoustics, spectral rhythms are those rhythms too fast to be noted as proper rhythms and that are only notable as intoned pitches. Metrical rhythms are those rhythms slow enough to be noted as proper rhythms, as patterns of intonations.

  • Similarly, in quantum field theory, spectral rhythms are those rhythms too fast to be noted as proper rhythms and that are only notable as excited particles. Metrical rhythms are those rhythms slow enough to be noted as proper rhythms, as patterns of excitations.

  • Finally, in finance, spectral rhythms are those rhythms too fast to be notable as proper rhythms and that are only noted as transacted prices. Metrical rhythms are those rhythms slow enough to be noted as proper rhythms, as patterns of transactions.

Rhythm, in finance, physics, and music, is more than a matter of differences in period, it is also a matter of differences in amplitude: how and when the tone becomes louder or softer over the course of a given period. Rhythm in finance is, similarly, just as much a matter of the amplitudes of transactions as it is a matter of periods of and between transactions.

  • Amplitude can be defined as the relation between the amount one pays and the amount that one can pay.

  • When an individual spends $5 when they only have $10 to spend, the transactions has a higher amplitude, it is louder. When an individual pays $5 when they have $10 million to spend, their transaction has a lower amplitude, it is quieter.

  • Let’s say that a payment of $5 is divided up into $1 installments over the course of five months and that the payer has $10 when the first installment is due, has $100 when the second is due, $50 when the third is do, $25 when the fourth is due, and $100 when the last is due. Each $1 payment will, thus, have a different amplitude, quieter in the second month than in the first, louder in the third month than in the second, louder again in the fourth month than in the third, and then quieter in the fifth month than in the fourth.

  • Amplitude is linked to the financial instrument with which one pays: If I have a credit card with a $10,000 limit and $1000 in cash in my possession, paying  $500 in cash for a new television will generate a louder amplitude than putting $500 on my credit card. 

  • What’s more, amplitude is relative for the payer and payee: if I pay you $5 cash when I have $10 in cash and you have $100, the amplitude of this transaction will be louder for me and quieter for you.

    • A side note: when you make a small purchase from a large corporation, e.g., when you spend $5.00 at Walmart or Target, your transaction is un-impactful, it is “inaudible” to Walmart. When you make a small purchase from a struggling mom-and-pop shop, by contrast, your purchase will be audible to the struggling mom-and-pop shop. 

    • So, if one desires to have an impact and “be heard” as an individual customer, one should make purchases from small businesses rather than large ones whenever possible.

Period and amplitude are not two separate and distinct properties that a rhythm possesses. Rather, period and amplitude are complementary properties of rhythm.

  • The more certain one is about a rhythm’s periods, the less certain one is about its amplitudes. And, vice versa, the more certain one is about a rhythm’s amplitudes, the less certain one is about its periods. 

    • Those who “lack rhythm” are either (i) those who seek absolute certainty about periods and, thus, wind up lacking all certainty regarding amplitudes, or (ii) those who seek absolute certainty about amplitudes and, thus, wind up lacking all certainty regarding periods.

    • Those who “have rhythm” are those who are comfortable playing with uncertainty, playing with the relative resolution and dissolution of their certainty regarding periods and amplitudes.